Sunday, 15 October 2017

Trump Playing Four-Dimensional Chess

Just to explain the Trump-Iran nuke deal in simplicity....it works like this:

1.  You have a draft-law which Senator Bob Corker (R, Tenn) wrote with Senator Cardin (D, Maryland) that deals with the Iranian Nuclear Treaty situation.  It basically says that the President will certify or decertify the deal and that the Senate will not have an open vote on the treaty written. In essence, the Senate didn't want to discuss the way that the treaty was written.  It'd only cause trouble.  President Obama didn't want this problem, but it passed with 99 votes for and one against (Senator Tom Cotton, Republican).  So the President (Obama, at the time) certified the treaty and passed the mess onto President Trump. 

2.  President Trump will decertify the treaty.  That means because of the Cardin-Corker wording in the law....the Senate now has 60 days to discuss this and go into some direction, or do nothing. 

3.  In the view of the intellectual world, and the EU (especially the Germans), something needs to be done to resolve this or go back to the nifty treaty written.  Well...it's not Trump's dilemma.  It's the Senate's job, which it avoided in 2015.

4.  What happens next?  If the Senate cannot reach another conclusion....another fake draft bill....in this sixty day period period (between now and Christmas), then the thing falls apart and no treaty will exist. Remember....only the Senate can be the final word on treaties....NOT the President. 

5.  President Trump is merely pushing the buttons of Corker, Cardin, and forty-odd individuals who are hyped-up for keeping the treaty on the books. 

What I think will happen?  Corker leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and he needs to write up a simple twelve-line piece that says the Senate will accept responsibility of the treaty, then go and get McCain lined up, with the two independent Senators, and one mystery GOP senator....sign off the bill and then get the house to go along with this. 

Oh, but you also need the bill to pass the House....where you need twenty-four GOP members to vote with each Democratic House member.  You probably won't find 24 members this friendly.  If Trump threatens to veto the House/Senate draft?  Well....you'd need two-thirds of a vote in each, and it'll be a truly amazing thing that get that many votes lined up. 

Hmm, yeah, that might be a problem....unless of course you agree to tie this to some tax reform package, health-care reform deal, or Wall-construction package. 

Yeah, you can see where this Iran-Treaty business and the Corker-Cardin-Law is heading.  You will have to deal with Trump to fix this treaty business, and if you don't....it's not Trump who gets blamed.  It's the Senate.

It took Trump a year to learn how to play the Senate games.  At this point, I think he's mastered it completely, and they are standing there in some daze.  The thing is.....how many more stupid creations did the Senate create in the past decade....like medical care deal or this Corker-Cardin-Law? Trump might have a dozen of these lined up on the white-board and preparing to drag them along. 

The Research Project

I sat and read a piece from the Daily Caller today.  A George Soros foundation group went out and spent a fair amount of money to hire three researchers to go and survey 'working-class' Americans in five cities....in an effort to develop the strategy for the 2020 national election.

Open Society Foundations?  It's simply a network of groups that use money to build agenda politics.

So the study got published.  The aim of this...curiously....is to look at the plain white working-class voters, and why they drifted over to Trump.

I looked at the five cities involved in this....it's an odd group. Tacoma, Washington (I lived there for a while), Phoenix, Arizona (I lived near there for a while), Brooklyn, NY, Dayton, Ohio, and Birmingham, Alabama (I grew up near there).  Why these five?  Unknown. Maybe it's just luck.  They talked to four-hundred folks.

Birmingham is an unusual place.  Typically....if you were middle-class and working-class....you probably work in Birmingham but you don't live there.  Most folks have moved out of Jefferson County if they have the capital.  People tend to worry about crime....thug behavior...corrupt city officials...and city bankruptcy behavior.  People that live in the county and city?  They vote Democrat on a solid basis...it's been that way since the 1950s.

Tacoma is an unusual place.  From the crowd under forty, I'd say that sixty-percent regularly smoke marijuana.  The industry of the city revolves around three things: (1) the base/Army post situation, (2) the port, and (3) Boeing crowd.  It's a fairly solid Democratic vote.

Brooklyn, NY?  It's an unusual place.  Folks worry about the economy and crime.  You can go back over the past six elections, and they tend to vote Democrat in every single election.

Dayton, Ohio?  It was a one-percent win for Trump over Hillary in 2016. 

Finally, I come to Phoenix.  Phoenix has a general history of voting more so for Democrats than Republicans. 

In the end after the Soros group reads through this business....my suspicion is that they see the need to create a Trump-equal....or a Trump-copy, and just mouth-off everything Trump promises.  The problem is that you'd have to talk about jobs....a topic that hasn't been something that Democrats could deliver upon.  Talk of cutting government services and trimming the budget?  No....it's merely a topic that gets some light discussion and never occurs.

The value of this research project?  I'd have my doubts.  Maybe if they'd gone into small towns in Iowa and Mississippi....to glean a broader prospective, it have had more value.  In this case?  Just more urbanized topics to sharpen the current Democratic message. 

Saturday, 14 October 2017

Thirty Pages

I sat and read over three or four stories early this morning over the FBI, the Lynch-Clinton documentation from the tarmac meeting to discuss Hillary, and the likely review to come out of this.

Basically, the FBI kept saying for months that no documentation existed from the Lynch-Clinton tarmac meeting in late-June of 2016.  Then in the last week, they found thirty pages of material and handed it over.

The basic story?  Lynch said that the whole meeting was just a casual meeting with Bill coming out to her VIP jet sitting on the tarmac in Phoenix, Arizona....to discuss grandkids, golf and travels.  Yeah, I know....it just sounds kinda hokey but she's more or less sworn to that story.

Why on board the jet?  I'm guessing it was out of the way from the public and they suspected that no one would spot Bill entering it.  It wasn't reported by national press (yeah, that's another odd part of the story).  It was the local Channel 15 reporter who spoke to the story, that swept the nation.

The thirty pages?  I'm guessing that there's three or four emails, with one final report over the entire trip that Lynch took, and the final report is likely a quarter of this entire thirty pages, with only three lines having to do with Clinton.

I seriously doubt that anything will come out of the thirty pages. 

Why Bill had to meet face to face?  He has some magnetic personality and thinks he can charm folks with that casual southern charm.  So the face-to-face meeting had to be part of the whole game.  Since there are no other witnesses to the meeting....you simply have to assume what Lynch wrote....is entirely true. 

Ethically?  Well, it's one of those episodes that really makes Lynch look bad.  A regular person with ethnics would have looked at the potential troubles and just said 'no'. 

So you can imagine the next couple of days while some folks pour over thirty pages and come to realize that there's really not much to say....Lynch bumped into Bill....maybe two lines of commentary about grandkids and golf, and she wished Bill good health.  A lot of drama, over nothing much.

Friday, 13 October 2017

Kerbow Family Connection

Over the past couple of years, I've spent some time looking at one single stretch of the family tree which ran to the Kerbow name.  It's an odd name....French in origin.

So, the story goes to this period around 1731 when some French Huguenots boarded a Dutch ship called the "Billender Townsend" out of Rotterdam, Netherlands. Jean Kerbo (spelled slightly different) boarded, and ended up in Philly.

The thing about this Huguenot group.....they'd lived in the Pfalz region of Germany for several decades....mostly because of religious persecution.  A lot of this religious fervor that occurred, comes out of the Thirty Years War period (1619-to-1650 era).  The war started originally between the reformers and the Catholics.  Halfway through this war, the religious side of this conflict mostly ended and it became a single community opposing another community....mostly over revenge-killing.

The family arrived in Philly on 8 October 1731.  What's generally said is that family united with other Huguenots in the Maryland region....going south into North and South Carolina over the next decade or two.  By the 1860 period, one division of the family had moved into Minor Hill, Tenn.  That's where my connection occurs.

The religious side of the family?  If you go through things, this whole religious thing kinda 'dryed-out' after one generation in the US.

The original area of France?  If you gaze at a France map....it's on the southeastern side...about forty miles south of Nancy, in a region called Haute-Saone....a county-like area that is about forty by forty miles, and mostly all farms. It's about a 20-minute drive to the Swiss border, and there's nothing urban there....this is pure farming territory today.

The population shift for Haute-Saone?  Well, that's an interesting story.  From mid-1800s to 2005...it was a dramatic shift....dropping from the 400,000 level in the 1800s to 210,000 by the end of WW II.  Most of the shift?  This was a pure farming area, and lots of people left for industrial jobs by the mid-1800s to early 1900s.

Today?  You only find the Kerbow name around the US, to a smaller degree in Estongia and France.  My guess is that the bulk of the family left in the 1600s/1700s, and some ended up in Estonia as well.

Added note:  There are at least six different spellings to the name (Kerbo; Kerbow; Kirbo; Curbo; Curbow and Kuehrbeaux). 

Trump and UNESCO

Back in the 1920s, under the League of Nations....there was this long discussion to make the world a better place.  So the intellectual crowd came to this idea that if people just understood accomplishments and culture of other people....the world would be a mighty fine place, with no wars.

So the seed to UNESCO started up.  After WW II, the idea really took off.  If you asked UNESCO what their goal is?  "To contribute to the building of peace, the eradication of poverty, sustainable development and intercultural dialogue through education, the sciences, culture, communication and information".

To run, they require a fairly big chunk of money....shocker?  It wasn't that way in the 1950s, but you can imagine the past three decades with a fair amount of growth.

My description would be the intellectual's intellectual organization for the UN.  There are probably over forty different groups under the organization, with highly-paid members, who want to draw people into their focus.

At different points over the past two decades....they've come to irritate a number of governments.  Most of this would be considered 'pokes' by UNESCO against various countries.....and some going to the opposite way.  Even WikiLeaks in 2012 got into the middle....suggesting that UNESCO is a human-rights joke.

The UNESCO World Site gimmick?  It's a who's who of sites around the world that revolve around culture, and the need to be preserved.  Sadly, once you get your site onto the list....there's a UNESCO intellectual group who want to help micromanage your site.  An example here?  The San Antonio Missions (five of them in the center of the city).  If you came up and wanted to make big alterations to the area around these, you'd find some UNESCO folks wanting to have approval process.  This occurred in Dresden when the city said they were going to build a bridge across the river, and UNESCO said they wanted a historical-feeling-type bridge and the city said it'd be just a simple regular bridge.  UNESCO removed the World Heritage status to show their anger.

Can UNESCO survive without the US?  Yes.  Can the finances be a problem? Well, the US kinda quit paying into the pot back in 2011 over an issue.  So they've had to already downsize anyway. 

Thursday, 12 October 2017

On the Topic of Autodidacticism

As a kid, I had this reading interest.  Already by age ten...I had an interest in history, geography, cultures, etc.  I was lucky, this rural school I attended....had a decent library.  It might have been on a twenty foot by forty foot room....but they had an ample amount of books.  Added onto this, my mom would take me by the county library, which had a larger selection.

I never thought much about this interest or curiosity of mine...even after I left home and went off to the Air Force.  They offered various training segments, instruction in odd things (assembling and disassembling rifles for example), bigger libraries, and I simply broadened out my prospective.

I had what you'd call autodidacticism. Autodidacticism is typically a behavior where you are self-educating yourself, proceeding through life with some instructors, or an entire lack of instructors. Autodidact people tend to pick and chose their interest.  They are typically terrible students for the system used in most schools today.

An Autodidact kid might come up and shock you because he's actually interested in ancient Rome.  He wants to know about the construction of the Colosseum.....it's intended purpose....how they operated....who came out for the events.....and how the Colosseum fits into the spiral of the Roman Empire.  Naturally, 99-percent of high school teachers can't answer these questions.  In fact....probably over 50-percent of college history professors....can't answer his request.  This is the kid who reads forty books over the period in question....memorizes the names that matter....and has some poster over his bed of the Colosseum.  At some point, the kid will grow up....travel to Rome, and stand in awe of the Colosseum for several hours.

Autodidacts tend to skip regular college because they really can't provide an adequate education.  If they do attend college, you tend to notice that they may pick and choose various classes which don't fit to any major.  For example, you might have some kid who picks two or three economic classes just to understand capitalism, it's history, and the logical anti-capitalist motivation.  Beyond that, he has no other interest.

This is also the kid who might take a community college class on how to build a log cabin, but never actually go beyond that point or ever build a log cabin.

Education went through some odd periods.  The Catholic Church picked up education and operated a number of instructional programs, and ended up starting the college system as we know of it today.  Up until the mid-1800s....if you went to any US or European college program....what you found was a simplistic program built upon five central themes....debate, ancient history, Latin, philosophy, and theology).  Engineering and science got added in the mid-to-late 1800s. 

What you found a huge growth pattern upon in the 1800s were Autodidact people developing their interest....going out to study things on their own, and building a reputation as an expert. 

You can find cases where people would travel for miles to hear so-and-so speak to some topic, or some expedition to Africa, or some new medical idea. 

Oddly enough, if you peel away a lot of the Batman character displayed over the past twenty years....he's a Autodidact.  He is self-taught to some degree, and using masters to provide an education in other areas.

The world ahead for the Autodidacts?  That's an interesting topic.  The internet basically offers this vast landscape to go and learn odd knowledge that was difficult in the past to gain.  You can sit now via a YouTube lecture and get a two-hour lecture by some noted British professor from Cambridge on Roman war techniques.  Or you could sit and hear a sixty-minute talk by some Japanese professor on herbal remedies that were commonly practiced in Japan's 1600s. Or you could hear some gifted guy talk about horse-shoe procedures and how they differ from one culture to another.

In some ways, we are opening up a vast door now for Autodidacts.  They could go way beyond anything that we'd ever dreamed of. 

Wednesday, 11 October 2017

The Worry Story

The WattsUpWithThat crowd wrote up an interesting piece today....over a university study piece (by Chapman University)....studying 'fears' of people.

The study crowd says that climate change/global cooling.....really isn't high up on the list of fears by Americans.  Shocker, eh?

In fact, more Americans believed and feared paranormal things (like ghosts)....more than climate change.  I think if you did the same survey on Germans....it'd be the exact opposite.

On the top fears or worries for Americans?  Number one: corruption of government bureaucrats. Amusingly enough....fear of Trumps reform of the Healthcare Act came up as number two on the fear list.

Fear of North Korean nukes?  Way down as number nine.  In fact, folks worried more about not having enough money (ranked five on the list).

I sat and pondered over the listing. 

From the list of the top ten fears that most Americans showed fear over?  I kinda have to admit that I don't sit around and worry much about any of these. 

Oh, I worry about snakes if I'm in a snaky area and there's high grass.  I worry about food poisoning if I'm at a questionable one-star restaurant.  I don't worry much about ghosts, cannibals, meteors, wild dogs, or angry elephants.  I do worry about nutcases who talk to themselves, Brahma bulls, driving in snow-storms, real Nazis (not the fake Nazis), and people who appear to have leprosy.  I don't worry about meth-heads unless they seem totally out of control.

The problem I see with this survey business is that they aren't really going out into country settings and asking regular people about this stuff.

Most folks from where I grew up would hype up their worry over tornadoes, their car transmission failing, the county voting to go dry, their wife finding out about their mistress, the water heater failing, meth-heads, corrupt cops, and some Alabama governor making a play on their wife or girlfriend.  Folks worrying about climate change?  I doubt if it'd even make the top forty worries.

This worry discussion?  I guess someone worries about what makes you worry.