Saturday, 5 August 2017

Two Ancestors

I have two ancestors who crossed 'oceans' and stepped foot upon another land....each different in the load that they carried.

1.  "Job".  At the age of 19, Job left London, bound for Virginia as an indentured crop-guy.  In this period, you'd go and make an arrangement on paper that said for a period of time....usually two to three years....you'd go and work for a family farm in the new world. In some ways, it was a way to escape London....which had gone through the plague period, and Job had likely seen an awful lot of deaths in the year or two prior to his exodus (spring of 1666).  Oddly enough, he misses the great London fire, which occurs weeks after he leaves.

This is the guy who wrapped up his farm-worker period successfully, and then became a tobacco farmer himself.

If you look at the kid....he likely had a canvas bag with a change or two of clothing, and nothing else.  His adventure on the vessel took six to eight weeks, and he probably came to appreciate the farming atmosphere

2.  Raoul II de Taisson Dodleston.  Yeah....a Norman (French).  In his case, he'd progressed up the chain...noted as a Lord in Normandy, and died at the age of 66....crossed the English Channel in October of 1066, and ended up on the battlefield of Hastings.  He too...probably had a canvas bag with a change of clothing.

He was probably too old for the Battle of Hastings, and the remarkable amount of physical activity required.

In Raoul's case....his son got some piece of the reward, and ended up in the Cheshire area.

Each of the two crossed a fair amount of water, to reach some stage in his life.  The older guy felt he was obligated in some way....the younger looking for a second chance in his life.

How the Democrats Can Win in 2020

While three years away from the election....one might sit and speculate over how it might happen.

There are two ways that the Democrats can carry this election.

1.  Using the Clinton method 1992/1996.  Have a third-party guy standing there to take votes.  In this case, you had Ross Perot existing in 1992 to help take 19-percent of the national vote from George Bush.  This allowed Bush to only win 18 of the fifty states.  Oddly enough, if you use the voting district map....this also allow Clinton to take roughly 40 to 45 percent of the districts (instead of using the state method).

In 1996, Perot is there again, to help Clinton win....this time by taking 8-percent of the vote.  Without Perot, Bob Dole would have won.

The Jimmy Carter win?  Well, this is interesting because Carter only took 23 states....to Ford's 27 states.  Carter wins by 1.7 million votes.  Carter's big upsurge was taking metropolitian votes (typically where Democrats are stronger), and virtually all of the south.  Carter, four years later, in 1980....could NOT win metropolitan areas (go figure that one).

2.  Using the Obama method 2008/2012.  Twenty-eight states went for Obama in 2008.  A lot of this upsurge was the ability to get blacks mobilized, registered and showing up to vote.  The same trick was used in 2012.  Having two GOP candidates that weren't exactly embraced by the entire Republican crowd....probably helped as well.

So, that's basically it....two methods to push the Republicans out.  You either find the perfect third-party guy, or you go to a black candidate that draws mobilization/votes.  Without Perot....Clinton never wins.  Without a black background, Obama never wins.

If you look at 2020, it might be an interesting election.